Provisional Technical Programme

Note that all attendees are welcome to attend the key skills training sessions.

The only private UTOPIAE sessions are 2pm–5pm on Tuesday and 1pm–4pm on Wednesday.

On Tuesday attendees who are not part of UTOPIAE are welcome to present short talks on their work in a parallel session: if you would like to do this, please tick the option at registration and we will contact you for a talk title.

Mon 02 Jul
09:00-11:00
Introduction to Bayesian statisticsGeorgios Karagiannis, University of Durham
Abstract to follow
11:00-13:00
Introduction to the theory of imprecise probabilityErik Quaeghebeur, TU, Delft
Abstract to follow
13:00-13:40
Lunch
13:40-15:40
Statistical modelling with imprecise probabilitiesThomas Augustin, University of Munich
Abstract to follow
16:15-
Tour of Durham Castle
Tues 03 Jul
09:00-11:00
Markov chains with imprecise probabilitiesGert de Cooman, Ghent University
Abstract to follow
11:00-13:00
Introduction to reliability theoryFrank Coolen, University of Durham
Abstract to follow
13:00-14:00
Lunch
14:00-17:00
Afternoon ESR activity (UTOPIAE personnel only)
Non-UTOPIAE participant short talks
Wed 04 Jul
09:00-11:00
Sampling from complex probability distributionsLouis Aslett, University of Durham
Abstract to follow
11:00-12:00
Key skills training: Reviewing papersJochen Einbeck, University of Durham
Abstract to follow
12:00-13:00
Lunch
13:00-16:00
Project working group presentationsESRs, UTOPIAE
16:00-17:00
Public Lecture: RandomnessGert de Cooman, Ghent University
Abstract to follow
Thu 05 Jul
09:00-11:00
Engineering pathways for quantifying inconsistent informationMichael Beer, Leibniz Universität Hannover
In engineering practice data and information are normally not available in an ideal form for mathematical quantification with with probabilistic models. In those cases imprecise probabilities offer a framework to remedy the problem. However, depending on the specific problem, there is still a large range of options on how to put up the model. In some cases, we may have strong evidence for the type of distribution, and vagueness exists only on the probabilistic model parameter values. In other cases, we may have conflicting expert assessments on distribution types and some data of only poor quality. Occasionally, we may only have a rough idea about the range of structural or environmental parameters associated with a credibility expressed as subjective probability. In each particular case the analyst needs to decide how to establish the model using the rich framework of imprecise probabilities, matching the technical context of the problem at hand. In this presentation we will discuss practical engineering pathways for solving this problem.
11:00-13:00
Simulation methods for the analysis of complex systemsEdoardo Patelli, University of Liverpool
Analysis of systems is traditionally performed adopting different tools reliability block diagrams, fault tree and success tree methods, failure mode and effect analysis, etc… These traditional approaches are difficult or impossible to apply to large complex systems due to the complex and tedious calculations for finding minimal path sets and cut sets. Instead, simulation approaches can be used to investigate large and complex systems and for obtaining numerical solutions where analytical solutions are not available. In particular, simulation methods allow to consider explicitly the effect of uncertainty and imprecision on the system under investigation providing a powerful tool for risk analysis which allows better decision making under uncertainty.

A simple and generally applicable simulation approach, enhanced for multi-state systems of any topology is presented. Each component is defined as a Semi-Markov stochastic process and via discrete-event simulation. The principles of flow conservation are invoked to determine flow across the system for every performance level change of its components using the interior-point algorithm. This eliminates the need for cut-set definition and overcomes the limitations of existing techniques. The methodology can also be exploited to account for effects of transmission efficiency and loading restrictions of components on system reliability and performance. The approach is simple and generally applicable to systems, including those with limited maintenance teams, reconfiguration requirements, and multiple commodity flows

In addition, efficient simulation approaches will be presented to estimate the reliability of systems based on survival signature. The simulation approaches are generally applicable to any system configuration and allow to consider different representation of the uncertainties (i.e. distribution, intervals, fuzzy etc) and system multi-state components (i.e. repairable components).
13:00-14:00
Lunch
14:00-17:00
Key skills training:
1. Publish successfully
2. Careers advice
Michael Beer, Leibniz Universität Hannover
Publish successfully:

The presentation will highlight some key issues to take of when preparing journal papers. Advice will be provided on how to select the right journal for the paper, how to define the right paper type, and how to work out a research paper with emphasis on the key items that make it a research paper. In addition to these basic items, information will be provided on how to address reviewer comments, how to understand editorial decisions, and how to deal with conflicting information and problems. In overall, the information provided targets at increasing the chance for success when submitting journal papers. This presentation is based on own experience as an author, reviewer and handling and associate editor for several international journals.


Careers advice:

Going for an academic career means to set out for a dynamic pathway with often unexpected obstacles and restrictions and also chances. Getting prepared early helps to reduce uncertainties and to increase chances significantly. The presentation will highlight a number of facts that are crucial for success but are often not considered or considered too late. It will be explained how to develop an impactful CV as a basis for applying for academic jobs worldwide. It will also be explained how applications are assessed, and how to prepare them to make the most important items clear to the panels and referees. This presentation is based on own experience in different academic systems and on experience from assessing applications and writing and assessing reference letters.
During this time the UTOPIAE Network meeting will take place - UTOPIAE supervisors and managers
18:30-
UTOPIAE DinnerHatfield College
Fri 06 Jul
09:00-11:00
Reduction approaches for the Bayesian inference of model parameter: methods and examplesOlivier Le Maître, CNRS
Pietro Congedo, INRIA
Abstract to follow
11:00-13:00
Analysis and model validation starting with experimental measurementsOlivier Chazot and Thierry Magin, von Karman Institute
Abstract to follow